Brazil, Bolsonaro to the presidency priority to pensions and privatizations

Oct 31, 2018

Il Sole 24 ore

The article reports the presidential race between Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad, demonstrating the economic plans of Bolsonaro, leader of the dispute, such as decentralization and privatization.

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Il Sole 24 ore

Markets give it confidence: declining credit default swaps and less risk of cracking.

Objective: to reduce deficit and debt. Commitment in the fight against corruption.

They tried in every way. It was opposed by civil society, the Workers’ Party, newspapers and TV. Yet Jair Bolsonaro, a presidential candidate for Brazil, is the big booster favorite on Sunday. His adversary, Fernando Haddad, has attempted to revive even his identity, with an incursion into “augmented reality”, it would be better to say “augmented identity”. He wanted to become Fernando “lula” Haddad. Adding a name, that of Lula precisely, the former president loved by the Brazilian left who could not run for the presidential elections.

The Electoral Tribunal said “no” and now Bolsonaro proceeds to step towards the victory. The numbers are these: 56% against 44% of its rival. This is written by Datafolha, one of the country’s leading sound institutes.

Bolsonaro is against everyone. Against gays, “better a dead child rather than a homosexual” against women, ‘it is right that they earn less’, in favor of the dictatorship, ‘the military was right’, against the blacks. And, to vellicate the most muscular … minds, it encourages to shoot: ‘the cities are violent? buy guns and pull the trigger! ‘.

Yet the markets believe in this man, so much so that the Cds (Credit default swap), the cost of insurance against default, move in the direction of a falling risk. In a word, trust to Captain Bolsonaro, a former Army military.

The economic programs of Paulo Guedes, a monetarist of the Chicago Boys, ultra-liberal. Guedes, born in 1949, Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Chicago was one of the founders of the Banco Pactual, he directed several investment funds and companies and is currently a member of the Millennium Institute, together with Gustavo Granco, one of the creators of Plano Real .

Bolsonaromics

Guedes has promised to cancel the fiscal deficit (will reach 50 billion euros in 2018) within a year. Such as? With an aggressive privatization plan, pension reform and administrative reform to “streamline” the state. With regard to compliance with the “ceiling of expenditure” (established by the Constitution), which prevents the overrun of public spending, its position fades and returns responsibility to the parliamentary vote.

“Decentralization” is another cornerstone: the central government will have to reduce the Ministries and resources destined for security, education and health will have to be managed in a more local way, according to the needs of each community.

Privatization. It is the other pillar of “Bolsonaromics”. According to some estimates of government, it seems that an aggressive plan of privatization could bring about 200 billion euro into the coffers of the state, more than enough to ensure the elimination of the public deficit and to reduce the cost of debt that today is around 70% of the GDP.

The energy sector could have a safeguard clause. Bolsonaro defends the control of “strategic” companies, in particular, related to this sector. Yet, according to Mauro Mantica, director of Update Brasil, these announcements could be pre-electoral. The Bolsonaro of government, who knows, could be very different from that of the electoral campaign. Finally, the pension reform, a crucial point in the balance of public finances that the Temer government has neither the strength nor the credibility to face.

The trust of the operators

“The markets buy Bolsonaro”, says Graziano Messana, managing director of GM Venture, who observes from San Paolo that there are no worries: the Stock Exchange shows euphoria and the companies after months of prudence or even paralysis believe the economic recovery. The black hole of credibility in which Petrobras fell (the country’s safe) seems partially outdated. Messana explains how there is a widespread sentiment of greater transparency, in short, a change from the climate of a few years ago. And Italian companies also look to the country with more confidence. Although the words of Vinicius de Moraes should be remembered, “Brazil is not a country for beginners”.

The Keyword

#Credit Default Swap

Protection from default

It is a swap that has the function of transferring credit risk. A common hedging instrument among credit derivatives. In other words, it is insurance against the risk of cracking.

Original article in Italian.

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